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SUMMARY:
Today, the market experienced a significant rally, with the ES reaching new all-time highs at 6566. This movement was driven by a familiar pattern of institutional buying on dips, which has been a recurring theme since April. The market has been in a "buy dips" regime, with institutions creating buying pressure through failed breakdowns, leading to short squeezes. After the CPI report, the market dipped but quickly recovered, reaching the 6578 resistance level. The key task for bulls was to maintain the breakout and defend the all-time highs. The market's behavior suggests a continuation of the bullish trend, but the challenge remains to sustain these levels without a significant sell-off.BULL CASE:
The bull case is centered around maintaining the breakout above the recent all-time highs. If bulls can hold the 6582 support level, the market could build structure above this point and continue the upward trend. Targets for the next leg up include 6618, 6642, and 6653. An ultra-bullish scenario would see the market defending 6582 and resuming the next leg up without significant retracement.BEAR CASE:
The bear case involves the failure to hold the 6563 breakout zone. If this level is lost, it could provoke a dip, potentially leading to a more significant sell-off. However, the overall macro structure remains bullish unless the megaphone pattern fails at 6300. Short-term, a failure of 6563 could lead to a breakdown, but these trades are considered advanced and have a high failure rate.UPCOMING TRADING PLAN:
The trading plan for tomorrow involves waiting for a significant sell-off or the formation of a large sideways consolidation to provide structure for trading. The focus is on reacting to price movements rather than predicting them. The strategy involves trading failed breakdowns and managing trades level to level, leaving runners to capitalize on larger moves. The plan emphasizes profit protection and avoiding knife-catching during sell-offs. The first support level of interest is 6563, with a potential for a low-quality entry if 6582 holds and recovers 6586.ES_F LEVELS:
6642 | Resistance
6618 | Resistance
6611 | Resistance
6598 | Resistance
6593 | Resistance
6586 | Support
6582 | Support
6563 | Support
6547 | Support
6532 | Support